The combination of the internet and wireless technology have forever changed the paradigm of the telephone company. The network of copper, with all its wires in walls and trenches, and all the poles and termination equipment made "churn" an unknown quantity after the consolidation of the wireline telephone network 80 years ago. These capital intensive connectors to centralized databases were expensive, took a long time to install, and were resistant to technology upgrades. Well, wireless equipment is also still expensive (getting cheaper all the time) - but - it's not nearly as resistant to upgrades; the good stuff is made for it. The databases are not purely centralized any longer, but distributed, and a wireless network can go up in weeks. Spectrum efficiency keeps increasing, faster - believe it or not - than demand. It is entirely possible to conceive of lots of different networks all co-existing that you "surf" on and off of with your multi-modal mobile device. Because of the close ties to the topography and local structure ownership, the physical networks would still have an element of local control. Especially since businesses are private property, and the "local" unlicensed spectrum will stay under their control. Like parking and ambiance, some stores and malls will advertise that they have the best wireless coverage and data speeds. The current concept of churn will cease to exist, sometime in the next 50 years.
Everybody thought that the wireless data would tax the supply of spectrum, but that's not happened. Wireless consolidation appears to be more "elimination of competition" than lowering cost structure to decrease cost to the consumer. Want to eliminate churn? Kill competition. Let the economic forces consolidate the industry back into the cozy duopoly it was for the first 15 years instead of the last 5. The result will be: higher prices, less competition, no new features, worse customer service and an general stifling of economic growth from the sector. But....churn will be much lower....until the final step....in a startling move, the U.S. government will seize the telecom licenses of all commercial carriers and operate them on ONE SINGLE NETWORK - yea, that's the ticket - just like the old Ma Bell. Then, churn will be...ZERO.
Everybody thought that the wireless data would tax the supply of spectrum, but that's not happened. Wireless consolidation appears to be more "elimination of competition" than lowering cost structure to decrease cost to the consumer. Want to eliminate churn? Kill competition. Let the economic forces consolidate the industry back into the cozy duopoly it was for the first 15 years instead of the last 5. The result will be: higher prices, less competition, no new features, worse customer service and an general stifling of economic growth from the sector. But....churn will be much lower....until the final step....in a startling move, the U.S. government will seize the telecom licenses of all commercial carriers and operate them on ONE SINGLE NETWORK - yea, that's the ticket - just like the old Ma Bell. Then, churn will be...ZERO.


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