Friday, April 26, 2002

gave a short talk the other day in NYC. As one guy put it "telecom was the pariah for 6 months, now it seems to slowly be getting back in vogue". Sure does not feel like it. we keep working and working, paring and paring, and still complaints. One big revelation over the past 10 years has been the massive groupthink virtually each collection of people in the same time/place seems to undergo. first, every poor/single mom was a welfare queen (the 80s). If only we'd reform welfare. next, every dad is deadbeat in the '90s and today. Turns out that even "respected social scientists" like Dr. Elaine Sorenson, who was responsible for the single biggest piece of misinformation of a decade when, through a colossally lame piece of mathematical bumbling declared that there was $34B of unpaid child support, are not immune. Turns out it was more like $3B, and, most of the unpaid part of that was from dads who were IN JAIL. Well, that still seems to be the conventional wisdom, but slowly this little bit of misinformation is slipping away as DNA tests are revealing the astonishing unfaithfulness of so many. And the realization that that there are always cheats and deadbeats, but most parents are fundamentally good. looking for a single scapegoat rarely is good public policy. Now the feds are going after financial analysts, as if they are single-handedly to blame for the greed of the late '90s that most of the country participated in. give me a break. every analyst that bucked the CW was either maligned as an idiot or fired. Bubble's of economic "growth" have been occurring since the beginning of time. Isaac Newton lost tons on a similar bubble. Then there was tulipmania. It's just that now there are "analysts", and, somebody for people to blame.